Electrify Buildings
Phase Out Use of Natural Gas
To eliminate emissions from buildings, we need to switch from fossil fuels to electricity for space heating, hot water, and cooking. The City and State have mandated that new commercial and multi-family buildings use electric heat pumps for space and water heating. The State should adopt similar rules for new smaller residential buildings, or at least allow local jurisdictions to make those rules. Further, there should be rules in place to require existing buildings, both commercial and residential to electrify, and programs to make that easier for building owners and occupants. The City has a plan for electrifying its public buildings.
Existing Programs
The City does have a plan in place for converting existing residential housing that is heated with oil. These buildings have been prioritized for conversion because the emissions from burning oil are much worse than those from natural gas. The City is paying for low-income homeowners to make the switch, and it has passed a tax on oil that was postponed due to the pandemic but is now scheduled to go into effect in Sept 2023. The proceeds from the tax will be used to help homeowners with the conversion.
The County has adopted a C-PACER program that allows owners of commercial buildings to secure loans for electric conversions.
The City should educate property owners on the benefits of efficiency improvements and electrification, and it should have a list of recommended contractors that owners can contact to get the work done.
There should be rebates, particularly for low-income homeowners, to help bridge the cost between a gas furnace and an electric heat pump.
There are certain intervention points that are particularly good times to electrify. By placing requirements for electrifying at those points, eventually all buildings will be converted. For example, when a building is sold or remodeled, money can be allocated out of the mortgage for a conversion, and typically this is a small part of the total amount. When existing furnaces fail and must be replaced, replacing them with electric will be much cheaper than doing an in-kind replacement that must be converted later.
This is a place where the City does not currently have the power to do this, but must rely on the State to make it possible. In the meantime, if there are conversion requirements for existing buildings, this would send a strong signal to developers that gas appliances are not practical.
The City has a plan to electrify all of its public buildings. This plan requires money to be set aside in the budget every year for this purpose.
The City should enlarge its workforce training programs to insure adequate numbers of electricians and installers.
Advantages of Heat Pumps
Heat pumps can cool as well as heat, so when you get a heat pump you are also getting air conditioning, which is a huge benefit now that summers have more extreme heat waves.
Heat pumps keep a more even temperature.
Heat pumps run on electricity, which is safer than gas. A decaying or malfunctioning furnace can emit carbon monoxide into your home. This is an odorless gas that will kill you if undetected. Also, aging gas infrastructure in our country has been responsible for some horrific explosions in recent years.
A modern heat pump is significantly more efficient than a gas furnace.
The capital cost of a new heat pump is more than a gas furnace, but the cost of running it is lower, so it will pay for itself over time.
Point/Counterpoint
There are a lot of investments now in fossil gas, and many people and corporations, are not onboard with electrification. Here are some objections we've heard about building electrification, together with our responses:
Heat pumps don't work in cold weather. This used to be true in the 80's, but technological advances have improved heat pump efficiency even in very cold weather, and they are now being deployed very successfully nationwide. See this article, Heat Pumps: A Practical Solution for Cold Climates, from RMI.
Heat pumps are more expensive than gas furnaces. It is more expensive, but you get the option of cooling as well as heating, which is critical for getting through smoke events in the summer with the windows closed. Total cost of ownership of a heat pump is less than a gas furnace and air conditioner.
Electricity is not as dependable as gas. It is true that with a gas fireplace you can heat when the electricity is out, but modern gas furnaces will not heat during a power outage because they turn on and off frequently with electrical ignition.
Gas is transitioning to renewable and hydrogen, it should be part of the solution and we can reuse its infrastructure. It is true that you can get renewable gas that is recovered, for example, from decaying garbage, but potential supplies are not enough to power our heating needs. Hydrogen is a possible clean energy, if it is created using clean electricity, but it is only cost effective for industrial applications that can't use other power sources.
We don't have enough capacity in the electrical system for what will be required, and we can't get permits & construction for what is required fast enough. In fact, electrical use in Seattle has gone down, even while the population has expanded, because of efficiency improvements. The cost of renewable electricity has been steadily falling, and although we will need more electricity sources, and more power lines for reliability, this is far cheaper than burning gas and then recovering the carbon back from the atmosphere.
Requiring electrification now discourages investments in gas efficiency. This is true, and I am sure it is very discouraging for people who are working on these efficiency improvements for gas. However, efficiency improvements in our gas infrastructure cannot deliver GHG emission reductions in the scale that is required to meet our climate goals.
Natural gas is clean energy, so there is no need for a transition. Fossil, or "natural" gas is methane, and it releases CO2 into the atmosphere when it is burned. Further, there are leakages all along the path from the source to the final point of use, and methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas. It is 84 times worse to release methane than it is to release a comparable amount of CO2. For all of these reasons, we need to stop using methane, and transition to electricity.
Also, since there will be a big demand for electricians, it will be a great training opportunity for young people to become electrical workers or a career shift opportunity for people in the fossil fuel industry.
Can We Afford It?
For new buildings, it is cheapest to go all-electric, if you are cooling as well as heating, and use an electric heat pump for heating/cooling, a hybrid-electric water heater, and an induction cooktop with an electric oven, because there is a considerable savings from not needing a gas connection, and nothing requires conversion. For existing homes, it is more expensive to switch to electric, but there are many advantages, including cooling and better air filtration for smoke and viruses. For a relatively small additional cost, you get a great deal more health and comfort, plus a tremendous savings on GHG emissions.
The upfront cost is more, but the lifetime cost is very similar. In fact, it is far, far cheaper once the costs of health care and climate change are factored in.
Washington Decarbonization Work
The Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission was directed by the Legislature in 2021 to conduct a study on energy decarbonization impacts and pathways. This study will explore various scenarios for reducing emissions from Washington's electric and natural gas systems. The end result of this project will be a report due to the legislature by June 1, 2023. They have been doing public outreach and conducting public technical meetings. See here for more information on future meetings, as well as access toslides and recordings from past meetings.
The goals of the study are below:
How natural gas utilities can decarbonize;
The impacts of increased electrification on the ability of electric utilities to deliver services to current natural gas customers reliably and affordably;
The ability of electric utilities to procure and deliver electric power to reliably meet that load;
The impact on regional electric system resource adequacy, and the transmission and distribution infrastructure requirements for such a transition;
The costs and benefits to residential and commercial customers, including environmental, health, and economic benefits;
Equity considerations and impacts to low-income customers and highly impacted communities; and
Potential regulatory policy changes to facilitate decarbonization of the services that gas companies provide while ensuring customer rates are fair, just, reasonable, and sufficient.
Experiences In Other Places
The city of Berkeley, CA commissioned an Existing Buidings Electrification Strategy with assistance from Rocky Mountain Institute. The report is very well done, and broadly applicable to Seattle and King County given the similarities between the two areas.
The Building Electrification Institute is a group of former City building people who are working electrifying buildings in cities.
Washington DC: New Bill Would Replace Natural Gas Appliances In Low-Income Homes
BDC, a California building decarbonization group
Useful Links
The BERK report on housing in Seattle has lots of information about our housing inventory. Starting on p. 33 there is info on numbers of units of different housing types, age of units, rental vs owner occupied, assessed value, etc.